Time is running out, and nothing in the horizon confirms the possibility of reaching a satisfactory political solution that would stop the UN Security Council from taking a decision in its meeting (within five days) on the Iraqi government crisis. The expectations are -) appointing a governor in Iraq -) an Iraqi national unity government. A decision made by Al-Iraqiya List to suspend its negotiations with other coalitions and in particular the “Iraqi National Alliance” and the “State of law” which confirms, according to the opponents the intention to go towards the internationalization of Iraq’s crisis. At the same time, Shiites coalitions started to circulate the existence of a regional conspiracy to withdraw power from the Shiites under the pretext …
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Political scenarios after Al-Sadr’s meeting with Allawi
There are two points behind Muqtada Al-Sadr’s visit to Syria (and his meeting with Allawi): The First is hardly noted, or reported and even mentioned in the western media (today I saw an article on Aljazeera on this “A new Middle East triangle?”). The second is Muqtada Al-Sadr’s press conference after his meeting with Allawi. Who will name the Iraqi Prime Minister? For more than a month ago, major Arabic newspapers circulated reports about the agreement among Syria — Turkey – Iran, authorizing Syria to name the new Iraqi Prime Minister (image above from a Kuwaiti newspaper). So, what is common among these three countries? Iran The most influential country in the Iraqi reality is Iran, who takes a standpoint …
The Shiite coalition and the story of the ”White Coup”
Concentrating on the last minute agreement between the Sadrists and “State of Law” (which is a tactic used by all coalitions to advance their negotiations status), the media failed to report the “white coup” took place inside the Iraqi National Alliance “INA”, which is much more important of any coalition announcement. The direct intervention by the supreme religious authority in Najaf, as well as the Iranian pressure, advised the Shiites coalitions not to stick to their already known candidates. The result was the exclusion of both Supreme Council’s candidate (Adel Abd Al-Mehdi) and the Sadrists candidate (Ibrahim Al-Ja’afri), after an emergency meeting held between INA members. The meeting witnessed words exchange between the Sadrists and the Supreme Council, each side …
The supreme clerics vs Joe Biden’s hidden agenda
Too early to judge Biden’s visit and the U.S. Suggestions regarding the formation of the Iraqi government as failure or success, but the only thing the Americans need to understand, is that history in Iraq does not significantly change its tactics and behavior. Therefore, an end to the political vacuum crisis should be an American resolution forces all political sides to form a government. Data from the performance of the Iraqi political behavior shows, the buy and sale deals occurred during Biden’s visit: The Prime Minister Maliki, a Shiite political leader .. But, a few months before the expiry of his mandate, he sold everyone including his Shiite-allies in Washington’s favor .. In exchange for the U.S. support to continue …
Biden’s visit to Baghdad and the U.S. three power-sharing scenarios
As often, the Sadrists did not hesitate to express their rejection to the U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to Baghdad with their own style, by putting their mark on this visit with three Katyusha rockets exploded around the U.S. embassy in the Green Zone. At the same time, the Supreme Council led by Ammar Al-Hakim did not issue an official position on the scenario for the formation of the government, but the condemnation expressed by the Sadrists, either through a statement released by Muqtada Al-Sadr, in which he called, Maliki and Allawi not to bow to the U.S. Pressure, or a statements made by the leader of the Supreme Council Sadr al-Din Qabanji — close to Iran, which he noted …
Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah, the black sheep of the Hawza … Why it is important to watch Maliki’s reaction?
With the death Hizballh’s and Maliki’s Dawa Party spiritual leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah died today, it is very interesting to watch the position of the Iraqi Hawza, especially Sistani. Since Maliki wants to change the Islamic face of his Dawa Party to a secular party, at the same time he Maliki needs to the Shiite public support. Fadlallah’s moderate ideas to reform the Shiite Hawza and take it back to its original roots caused anger among other Grand Ayatollahs who decided to remove him from Al-Hawza circle and forced him to go to exile in Lebanon. In my article “What is Al-Hawza?” I wrote about Fadlallah’s problems with the Hawza. In his many writings Fadlallah says: We must emerge …
The three factors determining the formation of the Iraqi government
there are three factors that can affect the slowdown or the speed up of the formation of the coming government: The meeting between Maliki and Allawi: once again Maliki revived this tactic to break the “iron currtain” put by his INA allies to block his nomination. Since the Prime Minister knows that this alliance between the “State of Law” and INA is blessed by Iran and build in hurry through the pressure on all its components, then the best way is to pressure on the Iranian side to exercise its role in persuading the Supreme Council, and the Sadrists to lift the veto and accept him as a candidate. Unlike the last meeting between Maliki and Allawi, Al-Iraqiya showed disinterssts …
The revolution of electricity in the southern provinces topples the Minister, eyes on Maliki, while new names of candidates emerged
First– A funny-sad Q&A session with the U.S. ambassador in Chatham House, which is not covered by Reuters — A reporter asked Hill: How come that the U.S. after seven years of occupation failed to repair the basic public services in Iraq, especially water and electricity while Saddam manged to to provide these service in a very short time, after the Gulf-war? Hill’s answer was: no comments. Beside Ja’afari, Adel Abd Al-Mehdi and even Ja’afar Al-Sadr, Kuwaiti newspapers say there are new names started to emerge as settlement candidates: — Habib Al-Sadr, the former director of the Iraqi Media Network. – Ali Al-Dabbagh, Maliki’s spokesman. – Khodair Al-Khuza’i, Minister of Education. – Sherwan Al-Wa’ali, Minister of National Security. In my …
Feltman’s suggestion of sharing power rejected
The absence of an official institution to register the “newly” formed Shiite alliance between the “State of Law” and “Iraqi National Alliance”, forced Maliki to renew his negotiation with the Sadrists, in an effort to counter the Supreme Council’s movements, who is trying to hide behind the Sadrists in order to hijack the prime minister office for his candidate, Adel Abdul Mahdi. Leaked information confirmed that Jeffrey Feltman, in his visit to Baghdad tried to revive the U.S. agenda to bridge the gap between the Maliki and Iyad Allawi, on the basis of partnership. however, informed sources confirmed that the leader of Al-Iraqiya List Iyad Allawi has rejected this view, stressing on his commitment to form the government. The Supreme Council …
Allawi, Maliki and the political message of the meeting
Despite the announcement of a merge between the “State of Law” and the Iraqi National Alliance”, the scheduled meeting between Maliki, Allawi has dominated the political scene in Iraq. Both leaders have their own agendas for this meeting, the difference between the two is very clear, which makes it difficult for this meeting to achieve its goals. Maliki, aims to inform Allawi that all the attempt carried out by Al-Iraqiya to head the next government are fruitless, and the list should recognize the de-facto. But Maliki also seeks to send a message to his INA allies that the “State of Law” could play Allawi’s card, if they insist on not to choose him for Prime Minister. As for Allawi, he felt …