Roads to Iraq

This is a very confusing report on Al-jarida newspaper: there are doubts of the involvement of elements of Lebanese Hizballah fight with Mahdi Army militia in Basra.

The confusing matter is that lets suppose that this is true, then Hizballah with Iran backup is fighting Al-Hakim’s Badr forces [Iraqi Army] which is backed up by Iran also, that leaves us with Iran fights itself in Basra.

Al-Arab reported that Iraqi intelligence agency accused Iran of triggering the violence in Basra through Mahdi Army, saying that Iran reduced the financial and intelligence support for MA because of the freeze decision, and the support will be resumed if MA can trigger disorder and security disturbances again.

Best analysis of what is really going on behind the military campaign in Basra can be found on Awan, where Sarmad Al-Tai wrote the following:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki enthusiasm to attack the Mahdi Army reminds us of Ayad Allawi’s enthusiasm to hit Mahdi Army four years ago when it wasn’t yet very well organized, the idea that angered the Shiite leaders like Chalabi and Maliki claiming that MA is not a terrorists organization, the same leaders who are recently hit Muqtada Al-Sadr harsher than Allawi.

Maliki can not fire a single bullet without an Washington accord, the Americans saw their benefit of such operation against Mahdi Army [the Sadrists] who are blocking the Iraqi – American long term presence in Iraq.

Al-Sadr gets the hits from his closed allies, who invested in his Mahdi Army to operate against the Sunnis, providing him the political and security cover and logistic support [using police cars and weapons].

In exchange for this Al-sadr is emerged stronger and his demands are getting more and more, is Iran going to stand idle watching Al-sadr shifting away from its control? The confrontation in Basra is Iran’s war on Iraqi ground, but this is for sure related to the failure of the fourth round of Tehran – Washington negotiations.

Many reports say that Iran ignited the violence in Basra, which is true, but I think I am the only one keeps saying that operation in this scale can not started without the American permission, accord and cooperation with Iran or through Iran’s associated group which in this case Al-Hakim’s SCIR.