Reli­able sources revealed to Al-Hayat about a warn­ing let­ter sent by Wash­ing­ton to Bagh­dad listed the con­se­quences of not sign­ing the draft secu­rity agree­ment. The let­ter con­tains three topics:

No secu­rity agree­ment means:

Secu­rity and sta­bil­ity risks

U.S. troops fail­ure to offer help (to defeat the ene­mies of Iraq), which means the halt of (counter-terrorism oper­a­tions, Al-Qaida, the spe­cial groups and other threats, as well as the lack of assis­tance in counter-insurgency oper­a­tions against out­law groups, the rem­nants of the for­mer regime and ter­ror­ists oper­a­tions against the finan­cial and logis­ti­cal networks.

The U.S. forces will sus­pend all aid oper­a­tions to the Iraqi forces to pro­tect the coun­try, lift­ing the 24 hours a day [mil­i­tary] air cover, freez­ing the U.S. pro­tec­tion oper­a­tions of the Iraqi waters, par­tic­u­larly in Umm Qasr port and two other oil ship­ment ports. In addi­tion to release the detainees in the U.S. forces deten­tion cen­ters and freez­ing all intel­li­gence coop­er­a­tion mon­i­tors of explo­sives and weapons stores.

Busi­ness and econ­omy risks

The U.S. will halt pro­vid­ing secu­rity to the recon­struc­tion teams which means an end to a 4.9 bil­lion dol­lar worth recon­struc­tion projects. The can­cel­la­tion of infra­struc­ture projects worth two hun­dred mil­lion dol­lar, in addi­tion to stop a 23 bil­lion dol­lar worth U.S. invest­ments and projects. About 200,000 Iraqis will lose their jobs.

Devel­op­ment and the Iraqi insti­tu­tions risks

Freez­ing the Amer­i­can pro­tec­tion and sup­port to inter­na­tional orga­ni­za­tions oper­at­ing in Iraq, this means the with­drawal of United Nations Assis­tance Mis­sion for Iraq, (UNAMI), and the end of the NATO mis­sion to train Iraqi forces.

At the local devel­op­ment oper­a­tions, the with­drawal of recon­struc­tion teams from the Iraqi provinces, fol­low­ing the end of the nec­es­sary secu­rity pro­tec­tion. End the secu­rity pro­tec­tion will also means the end of the non-governmental orga­ni­za­tions activ­i­ties, in par­tic­u­lar the Amer­i­can aid pro­gram (USAID) which pro­vides essen­tial ser­vices and sup­port for the dis­placed Iraqis, and to the employ­ment pro­grams. The U.S. forces will also lift the secu­rity and pro­tec­tion to the Iraqi judges and courts in the Rasafa and Ramadi.

There will be con­se­quences on Iraq’s diplo­matic rela­tions, espe­cially with neigh­bor­ing coun­tries; because of the secu­rity risks to the secu­rity of the not sign­ing the agree­ment will neg­a­tively affect the diplo­matic mis­sions and open­ing new embassies.