Con­trary to the con­fus­ing reports of media and news agen­cies, the Green Zone news­pa­per Al-Sabah pub­lished a very opti­mistic head­line today:

More than the half of the par­lia­ment mem­bers sup­ports the secu­rity agree­ment of withdrawal.

Despite the split between sup­port­ers and oppo­si­tion, but there is a big oppor­tu­nity to pass Secu­rity Agree­ment espe­cially that the num­ber of the MPs in favor of the pact exceeds the opposition.

But what pub­lished today on Al-Arab today, explains the real­ity behind the Al-Sabah pre­vi­ous report:

The major­ity of par­lia­ment mem­bers reject the secu­rity agreement.

Vot­ing method decides if SIFA can pass the par­lia­ment or not, if the par­lia­ment uses the sim­ple major­ity method (the half+1) then SOFA can pass, some of them want to use the absolute major­ity (180 vote), which makes it dif­fi­cult to pass.

The we under­stand is that the oppo­si­tion blocs refuse the use of the sim­ple major­ity method are led by the Sadirsts, who are threat­ened to go to the Fed­eral Court to chal­lenge the use of the pre­vi­ous vot­ing sys­tem, as reported on the Kuwaiti news­pa­per Al-Watan.

The news­pa­per also men­tioned that Tal­a­bani is using a “prim­i­tive” method to attract the votes of the oppo­si­tion MPs by orga­niz­ing lunch par­ties [which worked with some Sunni MPs].

Iraqi writer Najah Moham­mad Ali wrote to Swiss-Info that there are no seri­ous inter­nal or exter­nal oppo­si­tion to SOFA. Ali says that we hear now and then some Iran­ian voices oppose SOFA a, but this is part of the “diplo­matic eti­quette” between Iran and the United States.

On the inter­nal polit­i­cal posi­tions, he wrote:

There are no major dif­fer­ences among the posi­tions of the polit­i­cal blocs, Kurds, Arabs, Sun­nis and Shi­ites except the Sadrists, all of them agree on impor­tance of sign­ing the pact with the United States.

The Sunni polit­i­cal bloc “Accor­dance Front” for exam­ple; takes posi­tion on one item in SOFA, which is to release the detainees in the Amer­i­can pris­ons and not hands them over to the Iraqi authority.

The Asso­ci­a­tion of Islamic Schol­ars [AMSI], always demanded a timetable to with­draw the Amer­i­can troops, and this is pro­vided by the Secu­rity Agreement.

As for the Sadrists, there is no pro­gram [or vision] behind their SOFA’s rejec­tion. They are already part of a polit­i­cal process hosted by the occu­pa­tion and they refuse to sign a pact for the with­drawal of the occupation.

At last, one rea­son­able argu­ment from Jor­dan­ian writer Muwafaq Mahadin:

It seems that the Iraqis are busy with the Secu­rity Agree­ment and for­got the Oil Agree­ment, which orga­nizes the theft of Iraqi oil.