Comments on: The pre-election situation

By: NDHF Net

NDHF Net — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 13:18:46 +0000

The Iraqi parties, IIP, PUK, KDP, SCIRI (SIIC), Dawa are only ones with a proper “security guarantee” that are designed to “survive” from the election come-out-to-die trap.

That they took the Baathists hostages shows what they’re planning for them very soon. They’ll be killed just as the Sadrists.

Any amount of collaboration cannot provide other parties similar permanent security guarantee that the FIVE privileged ones have, since there are no more such items issued and available in circulation at the moment.

From this point of view it is totally pointless to raise mutual tensions between those targeted and standing in the same death row.

NDHF Net
http://newsdeskhelsinkifinland.net

By: paola pisi

paola pisi — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 23:55:31 +0000

Lady Bird,
how do you know that HALF of Sadr city residents (i.e. 1,500,000 people) are Sadr’s supporters? Because Bremer changed the name of the “city of revolution” (then Saddam’s city) into Sadr city? I read tons of interviews and most of Sadr city people say they are happy that the Mahdy army thugs don’t tyranize them anymore. And the basra people too say that they are glad that finally the Mahdi army terror ended. You can say that those interviews were false, and maybe they are. But maybe are true. It would not be so strange that sadr city residents were tired of crimes, of tortures, of kidnappings, of murders… It is not so difficult to understand why not everyone likes the committers of crimes such this one : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAnFcwVWwZ8
And in the last years Sadr city inhabitans were forced to see every day such monstrous crimes.

I too read the poll quoted by motown67: it says that about 4% of iraqi people back Sadr and would vote his candidates: http://www.iraqoilreport.com/Public_opinion_Polls_in_Iraq_from_ICRSS__Nationwide_October_2008.pdf
You wrote that the poll is false. Maybe you are right, but maybe you are not. Sincerely, seems to me that yours is whisful thinking: since you support Sadr, you think that most of iraqis too support him. But where are the evidences? In the latest sadrist rallies in Sadr city there were a few thousands of people (since the Mahdi army doesn’t force anymore the residents to take part in them). And even in the sadrist national demonstration of october 18, 2007 there were 50,000 people (largest estimate) from all Iraq. If, as you say, 1,500,000 sadr city inhabitants like that much Sadr and his drillers, why almost none of them shows his support for him?

By: LadyBird

LadyBird — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 21:24:03 +0000

motown67

Iraqi law doesn’t encourage independents if they are real “independents” not if they are supported by political blocs, take the guy who went to Israel for example “Mithal Al-Alusi” he is “independent” without party but elected because he is supported by the Shiites Coalition.

As for the finances, Sadr get his cut from the Shiites donation [Khomus and Zakat] add to this inheritance of his father’s and the, uncle and brothers cut. We are talking Millions of Million here if not more].

P.S.

I will read your piece a.s.a.p.
Al-Sadr doesn’t need to be financed, he finances things by his own.

By: motown67

motown67 — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 19:41:37 +0000

Again, the election law doesn’t favor independents nor small parties. Unless Sadr is able to organize and finance independents and parties across entire provinces his followers won’t get many seats on the prov. councils. The Sadrists have never been known for organizing either, and most of their money is raised locally. Not to mention the Mahdi militia at least have been fracturing for three years now. I just wrote about Sadr’s predicament as well on my blog if anyone is interested: http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com. Overall I still don’t see Sadr doing well at all in Jan. 09.

By: LadyBird

LadyBird — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 17:00:06 +0000

motown67

1) Al-Sadr said that he will participate in the election without a political-party but he will support “independent” candidates.

A very clever move because the candidates will not associated a political party and the best part is that Al-Sadr can abandons them whenever he wants.

2) This is my advise for the “future-polls”: never believe a single poll from the Middle East, if it comes from Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Egypt.…etc.

The countries are not a “poll-culture” and people divided into different ethnic and religious loyalties.

While there is not a single poll can reveal the public opinion, the best indication is: How big your “ethnic, religious” community (ie Hamas.…Hezbollah.…).

For Al-Sadr it is the same… there are about 3 million residents in Sadr-City in Baghdad, lets assume that the half of them are Sadr supporters, so what the polls say?.

3) Large parties at that time decided by the U.S. take Maliki for example: A head of the State while his Dawa Party virtually a small party without supporters.

Even Al-hakim’s Supreme Council is not very popular in Iraq [even before 2003]. The most popular with large supporters is Al-Sadr because he came from a family [father and uncles] are all well known in Iraq for many generations.

By: motown67

motown67 — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 01:55:07 +0000

I don’t know how Sadr’s going to do well in the provincial elections. The last public opinion poll I’ve seen saw Sadr as the 8th most popular political figure in the country. More importantly, the election laws favor the large parties because the provincial seats will be given according to how many votes they get across the entire province. Sadr has no national party either. Running with independents and smaller political parties as he said his followers will do will not be to their advantage.