Future coalitions

A good research on Kuwaiti news­pa­per Awan on who is going to join who in Iraqi provinces, but first lets look at this question.

With the emer­gence of the Provin­cial final results, Iraqi writer Muhanad Al-Samawi says that most west­erner researchers and ana­lysts, espe­cially West­ern­ers, high­lighted the achieve­ment of Maliki and his coali­tion obtain­ing the first place in 9 provinces in Iraq, but what these researchers ignored:

Kar­bala Province is already gov­erned by the Dawa party rep­re­sented by Aqeel Al-Khuzaie .. How can the coali­tion lose a province Maliki’s Dawa Party already has?

Jamal Al-A’amidi on Awan com­piled a list [not exactly a list] of future alliances in the provinces:

Bagh­dad

Maliki will need an alliance with the Sadrists (5 seats) or with the Shahid Al-Mihrab, sup­ported by the Supreme Coun­cil (3 seats) to obtain the majority.

Basra

No alliance needed, Maliki enjoys a com­fort­able majority.

Diwaniya

Maliki needs a coali­tion with Shahid Al-Mihrab (5 seats) or the Iraqi List (3 seats) or Al-Fadhila (2 seats) or the Sadrists (2 seats).

Dhi Qar

Maliki needs to form a coali­tion with the Sadrists (7 seats) to reach the required major­ity (20 seats).

Babil

Maliki needs to think of a polit­i­cal bloc to form an alliance with such as Shahid Al-Mihrab (5 seats) or the Iraqi List (3 seats) or other local polit­i­cal blocs achieved some good results also.

Wasit

Maliki will need the (6 seats) of Shahid AL-Mihrab or Allawi’s Iraqi List (3 seats) or Inte­rior Min­is­ter Al-Boulani’s (3 seats).

Najaf, Misan, Muthana

Maliki’s State of Law and Shahid Al-Mihrab, both achieved good results. If there are other sce­nar­ios both blocs need an alliance with each other.

Kar­bala

The writer pointed out that this is a very strange results.

Anbar

The list of the Awak­en­ing Coali­tion (8 seats) needs to form a coali­tion with Al-Mutlaq’s National Project (6 seats). Maybe this alliance goes wider to include other blocs to achieve the majority.

Nainewa

Al-Hadbaa achieved the major­ity and doesn’t need a coali­tion with other blocs.

Diyala

Accor­dance Front (9 seats), National Project (6 seats), Kur­dish Alliance (3 seats), these three can eas­ily form a coalition.

Sala­haddin

This is a very com­plex sit­u­a­tion accord­ing to the seats obtained by the blocs in the province.