Al-Hayat revealed today that Maliki himself went to Tehran in secret visit to negotiate with INA (the Sadrists) and newspaper even revealed that Maliki offered to name another candidate for the PM post.
Despite Al-Hayat report saying that Muqtada Al-Sadr was flexible and dropped his objection on Maliki, but Muqtada Al-Sadr added more demands:
The release of all [Sadrists] prisoners, should be given guarantees of non-unilateral use of power and the parliament should be able to sacked the prime minister at any time he would exceed the program.
Maliki (and his sidekick Dabgh) are playing the rumors game, the above was enough for both to circulate news about reaching an agreement between SoL and INA, while the reality is totally different.
First, Sadrists spokesman Salah al-Obeidi denied the above rumors saying that there are no agreements or alliances reached with the State of Law.
Second, this is reported about an hour ago says that the negotiations between both failed, INA and SoL are waiting for a second round negotiation in Baghdad soon, INA will hold a very important meeting among its members to decide in which direction the Coalition will follow (the Sadrists rejected all other names suggested by SoL even Adil Abd Al-Mahdi).
Third, to make things better or worst, Muqtada Al-Sadr called his supporters to start a referendum to choose the Sadrists candidate for the Prime Minister post, which confirms the news that part of the negotiations differences between both Shiite coalitions is that INA wants its own candidate for the post.
Allawi’s anger
The honeymoon (or better to call it a truce) between Iran and Allawi ended today with Allawi criticizing Iran saying:
Not Iran and not anybody can impose its will on the Iraqi people. Iran started to involve itself in every aspect in Iraq…
He even criticised Talabani, after the president went to Iran instead of going to Arab Summit (Allawi criticism came after a meeting between Talabani and the U.S. ambassador Christopher Hill).
SoL offered the following plan to INA, which is also the answer behind Allawi’s anger is the following:
To form a joined coalition (Maliki suggested Al-Wa’li as the leader) with the participation of the Kurdish Coalition and the Islamic. More spices needed to this combination, the “emerging” coalition wants to talk to Salih Al-Mutlaq Party a secular “decoration” offering the Mutlaq’s Bloc “The National Dialogue” the Foreign Ministry.
The above explains why SoL member Khalid Al-Asadi said that his coalition is negotiating blocs inside Al-Iraqiya, which is also confirmed by Al-Iraqiya leader Al-Nujaifi. Also explains the reaction made by Al-Iraqiya spokeswoman Maysoon Al-Damluji denied the disintegration of her coalition
Posted 9 September 06 by Petroleumworld.com
Scott Sullivan
A plan for Muqtada al-Sadr to stabilize Iran
Things are looking grim in Iraq. The al-Maliki government is floundering.
Ayatollah al-Sistani is floundering. The western third of the country is
mostly in the hands of the Sunni resistance. Iraq is drifting heading
towards full scale conflict as Iran and the US fail to counter the pressures
for partition.
Muqtada al-Sadr, Iraq’s Tito, can save the day. Here is an action plan.
First, establish that preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity is Iraq’s
supreme objective. All other issues will be subordinated to this issue.
Whoever departs from this line will be considered the enemy (Kurds and
pro-Iran Shia, are you listening?)
Second, demand that all of Iraq’s neighbors, especially Iran, support this
line. Gain support first from Turkey/NATO and Saudi Arabia, and then go to
Iran.
Co-opt Iraq’s major political factions, as follows.
Kurds. The Kurds will do what the US tells them to do. They have no allies
apart from the US. If civil war engulfs Iraq, they will suffer the most.
On the positive side, once al-Sadr has Kurdish support, he has taken a major
card away from the pro-Iran Shia like the SCIRI that promote Iraq’s
partition.
Iran. If Iran’s government is wise, it will be looking for a quick exit
strategy from Iraq. Iran followed the US into Iraq, and now Iran itself is
trapped. Muqtada al-Sadr is Iran’s exit strategy, at least the best that is
on offer. Of course, Iran can turn down this offer and stick with the
SCIRI, who are tied to the US occupation, and go down in flames with the US.
If this happens, President Ahmadinejad and his supporters will be looking
for new careers.
Sunnis. The Sunnis will cooperate with Muqtada al-Sadr because they will be
told to do so by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Sunnis will also cooperate
because they know they will be among the biggest losers in a partition
scenario, left without oil, and responsible for the defense of an
indefensible city, Baghdad. The Sunnis would also lose Kirkuk and its oil
wealth forever. The militant Shia, backed by Iran, would push the Sunnis
out of Iraq, and then lay siege to Saudi Arabia itself.
On the positive side, the Sunnis now are in a relatively strong bargaining
position, as they hold the Western third of the country. It is time for the
Sunnis to sue this leverage on behalf of a long term solution that protects
Sunni interests.
Shi’ia Dissidents. Mahmud al-Hasani, based in Karbala, is a rising power in
the Shia community. He is fast developing his own militia and is
responsible for attacks on Coalition forces and the SCIRI. Even more than
Muqtada al-Sadr, he opposes Iraq’s occupation by the US and Iran. On the
positive side, he will never capture Muqtada’s power base of the poorest
Shia. Moreover, Hasani is incapable of reaching out to the Kurds and the
Sunnis. See “A Joker in the Shi’ite Pack,” Sami Moubayed, http://www.atimes.com.
Iraq’s secularists, Marxists, and Progressives. They will cooperate with
Muqtada because he is another Tito and because they have no place else to
go.
Muqtada al-Sadr is a hard option. But all the other options are far worse.
If not Muqtada al Sadr, then Iraq’s breakup will make the break-up of
Yugoslavia look like a walk in the park. Yugoslavia had no oil, and none of
Yugoslavia’s neighbors wanted to rush in. Plus, Yugoslavia was buttressed
by neighboring firebreaks like NATO and the EU. None of these constraints
exist for Iraq. In short, Iraq can choose between the alternatives of
Muqtada, or widespread disintegration and war.
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld 09/12/06
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Change the title of my op-ed to: “How Muqtada al-Sadr can save Iraq.”