Winners and losers in the new exclusion decision

Some inter­est­ing com­ments today made by the Sadrist leader Bahaa Al-Araji say­ing that con­trary to expec­ta­tions Maliki’s State of Law could loss two seats after the recount of the votes.

As for the new exclu­sion list of the 52 can­di­dates released by the Jus­tice and Account­abil­ity Com­mis­sion, Al-Araji added that Al-Iraqiya will not loss a sin­gle seat because all the 52 can­di­dates are already dis­qual­i­fied in the election.

I don’t know how Al-Araji counted his num­bers, but the exclu­sion will not effect the results sig­nif­i­cantly, because the value of the seats may vary from one province to another.

Accord­ing to the strange elec­tion algo­rithm, the coali­tion that included in the exclu­sion deci­sion, may have leftover-votes (sur­plus) after the dis­tri­b­u­tion of the seats accord­ing to the value of the seat, and an excluded can­di­date may have won by the “left­over” votes, and not from the his coali­tion seats.

Add to the above, that each coali­tion has its own com­pen­satory seats, which will take the num­ber of seats back to the coali­tion (but not to the same per­son). My own expec­ta­tion is that SoL will one can­di­date (with­out los­ing a seat), and Al-Iraqiya will loss one seats.

The funny part reported by Al-Sumeria, as revealed by the Dis­crim­i­na­tory Court, is that the deci­sion of the exclu­sion of the 52 can­di­dates came at the request of Maliki him­self (Al-Sumeria released an image of the document)