This blog post was published on June 29 2010. §
The three factors determining the formation of the Iraqi government
there are three factors that can affect the slowdown or the speed up of the formation of the coming government:
The meeting between Maliki and Allawi:
once again Maliki revived this tactic to break the “iron currtain” put by his INA allies to block his nomination. Since the Prime Minister knows that this alliance between the “State of Law” and INA is blessed by Iran and build in hurry through the pressure on all its components, then the best way is to pressure on the Iranian side to exercise its role in persuading the Supreme Council, and the Sadrists to lift the veto and accept him as a candidate.
Unlike the last meeting between Maliki and Allawi, Al-Iraqiya showed disinterssts in the meeting between the leaders of the both coalitions, and started to play down the importance of the meeting. The best example is that Al-Iraqiya put condition before the meeting the meeting as reported by UAE newspaper Al-Ithad saying:
One of Al-Iraqiya’s conditions to hold a meeting between Allawi and Maliki is the exclusion of three “Dawa Party” leaders: Ali Al-Adeeb, Haidar Abadi, Khalid al-Asadi, pointing out that these figures are trying to aggravate the relations between the leaders of the two coalitions.
Reaction from INA suggests that the U.S. administration stands behind this renewed talks between Maliki and Allawi, as we understand from Al-Hakim reaction attacking the U.S. policy saying:
The U.S. policy in dealing with the political parties is varying degrees and controled by its relations, and it deals according to this basis with the political blocs. Washington is present in Iraq and has its own agenda and this may continue for years to come and no one could deny that there are many files in the country run by the Americans.
The supreme clerics in Najaf:
As they hinted few times in the last weeks, the supreme clerics will not be silence watching the failure of the Alliance of the “State of Law” and INA because of the personalization of the struggle for the position of prime minister.
The supreme cleric(s) will try to interfere in the crisis, and perhaps before the international intervene in forming the government, because Iraq is still under the “Article VII”, which doesn’t satisfay the top Shi’ite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Sistani.
Sistani’s representitave noted that:
The spreme clerics are monitoring the situation and the political movements of the street with great interest and feel the problems and the concerns of the citizens because of the delay happened in the elections and the formation of the government … The position of the supreme cleric(s) is a non-interference in the political affairs, but gives advice, but if the situation continues beyond the legal period for forming the government, the supreme cleric(s) may intervene
The new American ambassador James Jeffrey:
The appointment of the new American Ambassador James Jeffrey, in Baghdad, to replace Christopher Hill, came amid a sensitive stage in Iraq, where the decision to reduce U.S. forces in Iraq from the current 92,000 to 50,000 by the autumn, according to the gradual withdrawal strategy approved by Obama.
The appointment of James Jeffrey, as an American ambassador in Iraq came under the plan to change the U.S. officials in Afghanistan and Iraq, begun with the dismissing of the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General McChrystal, which suggests that the process of replacing the American ambassador in Baghdad came as a result the current deadlock that grips the political process in Iraq.