At the eve of the parliament’s first session .. The possible Iraqi scenarios

At a time when it was announced that the new Iraqi par­lia­ment to hold its first ses­sion next Mon­day, Iraqi sources pre­dicted that the U.S. Vice Pres­i­dent Joe Biden will arrive to Bagh­dad within the next two days, to dis­cuss the U.S. Admin­is­tra­tion views of the prepa­ra­tion for the with­drawal of the U.S. forces from Iraq (there are also rumors say that Shi­ite coali­tions will try to maneu­ver around Talabani’s deci­sion and announce the first par­lia­ment ses­sion as “an open ses­sion for at least 40 days”).

In the mean­time, Iyad Allawi launched an attack on the Iraqi gov­ern­ment for the first time using the word “Iraqi regime”, a term that now reflect the extent of the inter­sec­tion with the Prime Min­is­ter Maliki. In a press con­fer­ence pre­ceded his meet­ing with Al-Iraqiya, Allawi ignored his pre­vi­ous “wish to meet Maliki” argu­ment, and he repeat­edly said that the “Iraqi regime” did every­thing in its power to under­mine Al-Iraqiya win.

The inter­est­ing in Allawi’s state­ment is that, he failed to address the issues relat­ing to alliances between Al-Iraqiya and other coali­tions. Also made no men­tion to the new state­ment of the Pres­i­dent of the Kur­dis­tan region Mas­soud Barzani, who renewed the right of Al-Iraqiya to form a gov­ern­ment (announc­ing this after he returned from his visit to Turkey).

The gov­ern­ment for­ma­tion scenarios:

- Al-Iraqiya List to form an alliance with the Kurds and the Supreme Coun­cil to form a government.

This is the most expected sce­nario because the inter­ests of the Kurds require Al-Iraqiya List, espe­cially if the Kurds want to imple­ment Arti­cle 140 of the Con­sti­tu­tion, which con­cerns the dis­puted areas, they need Al-Iraqiya sup­port in Mosul and Kirkuk.

- The for­ma­tion of the gov­ern­ment by the “State of Law” and the “Iraqi National Alliance” and the Kur­dish Alliance.

The coun­try will face the same fate as that expe­ri­enced dur­ing the past seven years, a gov­ern­ment of a sec­tar­ian nature based on the mar­gin­al­iza­tion of an essen­tial com­po­nent of Iraqi soci­ety (Sunnis).

- The for­ma­tion of a national unity gov­ern­ment national includes all the polit­i­cal coali­tions (the Lebanese scenario).

This is the most pre­ferred sce­nario by the U.S. admin­is­tra­tion, a dys­func­tional gov­ern­ment which serves the U.S. inter­ests. A weak gov­ern­ment, func­tions on the basis of con­sen­sus and rep­re­sen­ta­tion and sec­tar­ian and fac­tional groups, which means the increase of the finan­cial and admin­is­tra­tive cor­rup­tion and empty promises (also pre­ferred by the small polit­i­cal blocs) .

- The two gov­ern­ments sce­nario (exec­u­tive gov­ern­ment and con­trol government).

Not expected, but in one way or another, the Sadrists want some­thing close to this sce­nario. A shadow gov­ern­ment, with the mech­a­nism to func­tion as a con­trol and eval­u­a­tion government.

Is this the end of Maliki? We will see this next time