The direct intervention by the supreme religious authority in Najaf, as well as the Iranian pressure, advised the Shiites coalitions not to stick to their already known candidates. The result was the exclusion of both Supreme Council’s candidate (Adel Abd Al-Mehdi) and the Sadrists candidate (Ibrahim Al-Ja’afri), after an emergency meeting held between INA members.
The idea to choose new candidates could be acceptable to all parties, including the Americans who seek to ensure their interests in Iraq after the withdrawal. According to the replacement scheme, the candidates are:
- Former oil minister Ibrahim Bahr Al-Ulum.
- Qasim Dawood, an independent member of the National Coalition, who is a very interesting choice, named as an alternative candidate or a competitor to Maliki, even though he was not able to get a parliamentary seat for his constituency in Karbala.
Seen as the straw that will break Maliki’s back, this “white coup” is an attempt to force the Prime Minister to offer more concessions to the Sadrists to receive their support in the Candidates Nomination Committee (the so called “wise men”). At the same time, it could be a political maneuver intended to keep Maliki alone in the competition arena, since Dawood and Bahr al-Ulum are not really strong contenders to Maliki’s nomination, compared to the political weight of Abdul Abd Al-Mehdi and Ibrahim Al-Jaafari.
I will write about the background of Muqtada Al-Sadr’s (and later Allawi) visit to Syria and what’s exactly going on in the coming days (if have the time and the mood).
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