There are two points behind Muqtada Al-Sadr’s visit to Syria (and his meeting with Allawi):
The First is hardly noted, or reported and even mentioned in the western media (today I saw an article on Aljazeera on this “A new Middle East triangle?”). The second is Muqtada Al-Sadr’s press conference after his meeting with Allawi.
Who will name the Iraqi Prime Minister?
For more than a month ago, major Arabic newspapers circulated reports about the agreement among Syria — Turkey – Iran, authorizing Syria to name the new Iraqi Prime Minister (image above from a Kuwaiti newspaper). So, what is common among these three countries?
Iran
The most influential country in the Iraqi reality is Iran, who takes a standpoint related to the equation of distribution of power and conflict in the region. It seems clear that the main objective of the Iranian regime in Baghdad is to establish a rule, ensures that Iraq is part of the axis of “resistance”, and ensures the establishment of communication between the strategic depth (Iran), logistics base (Syria) and the front lines (Gaza and southern Lebanon).
It is obvious that such Iraq will promote this theme and adds the element of strength to help dictate the rules of the game of relations in the region. As it is obvious that if Iraq goes to the “other front” (moderate Arabs), then this can have a devastating effect on this “resistance” axis.
That explains why the Iranian decision to oppose any influence of the “moderates” axis (especially Saudi Arabia and Egypt) inside Iraq. Even neutrality is unacceptable, (perhaps Maliki’s slogan “Iraq first” is the reason why Iran is blocking aliki’s second term).
Hence … the Iranian veto on Allawi is due to his relation with Saudi Arabia and not because of his relation with the U.S., since all the other candidates are connected to Washington, with different levels.
Syria
It seems that Syria (Iran and Turkey) no longer fears the federalization of Iraq (for fear of the spread inside Syria, Turkey and Iranian), and no longer fears a civil war on its borders with Iraq.
Syria also no longer fear the U.S. military deployment in Iraq, after it has been approved beyond doubt that the U.S. influence in the region is in decline. The U.S. went so far as asking Syria’s help to ensure the security of the U.S. forces to speed up the withdrawal plan.
On the economic side, Damascus main concern is to restart Banias-Kirkuk pipeline, to provide hard currency to the Syrian treasury (from here you can understand why Dawa Party delegations deliberately raise this issue whenever they visit Damascus in order to promote Nuri Al-Maliki). Also to ensure the implementation and the effectiveness of the free trade agreements between the two countries (800 million dollars in 2009).
Turkey
In terms of ensuring the security of the Iraqi Turkomen minority, Turkey wants to ensure that Kirkuk will not fall under the Kurds control to become a source of financial income of the Kurdish state, which is a red line for Ankara, believes that the unity of Iraqi territory, is a strategic goal.
Turkey’s new “shift to the Middle East” policy, goes parallel with “zero-crisis” policy, the Turkish intelligence services is active in Iraq, from north to south, started to “rearrange” the “Sunni-house” in cooperation with the Iraqi Sunni, Saudi Arabia and Syria, (before assigning Syria with the Iraqi file).
Political scenarios after Al-Sadr’s meeting with Allawi
In his press conference after his meeting with Allawi, Muqtada Al-Sadr called for the first time to distinguish between the Baathists and Saddamists, and so he joined Ammar Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council in his call last year to distinguish between the Baathists and Saddamists, an argument angered the Sadrists at that time, rejected to deal with the Baathists, without any distinction.
The plan put forward by Al-Iraqiya List, will give the Prime Minister post to the Al-Iraqiya’s candidate, Iyad Allawi, as the winning list with the highest votes. The presidency post to the Kurdistan Alliance and its only candidate Jalal Talabani and the presidency of the parliament to the Shiite National Coalition Sheikh Humam Hamoudi, a leader of the Supreme Council .
According to this scenario, Maliki’s bloc (State of Law) did not achieve any position, although the distributions of the government posts this time is not based on sectarian and ethnic divisions, but according to the electoral benefits.
According to this division, the office of Prime Minister and Parliament are mainly Shi’ite (Iyad Allawi, Humam Hamoudi), while the presidency of the Republic is the Kurds share.
Based on what happened in Damascus on Monday, the “State of Law” coalition left with no option but to sacrifice Maliki, according to this formula:
- If the members of Shiites National Alliance want to keep this coalition, then they need to exclude Maliki from the nomination.
- In the event of the collapse of the National Alliance, Allawi could be appointed as a Prime Minister, giving important government posts to the Sadrists.
- A compromise candidate of the National Coalition to the Prime Minister post, Al-Iraqiya to head the parliament, and Maliki’s “State of Law” on the opposition benches.
Baghdad, Damascus, Cairo, and Riyadh will dominate Middle East
Forget Iran and Turkey — they do not deserve to govern the Middle East. Iran is unfit to rule the Middle East because it has embraced the Nazi doctrine. Plus, Iran’s top priority is not to advance the Middle East but to disrupt the Middle East by establishing a Strategic Corridor that would provide a safe haven for terrorists and their weapons to move from Germany to the pro-German Balkan states, to Turkey, Iran and Pakistan;
Iraq’s top priority today is to pressure President Obama to send Gen Petraeus to Baghdad to warn Barzani, Talabani and Ahmadinejad that the US will no longer tolerate Kurdish and Iranian interference in Iraq’s internal affairs!
Op-ed: Obama to assign Gen Petraeus to Baghdad?
Obama will regret his decision to replace Gen McChrystal with Gen Petraeus as commander of all US forces in Afghanistan. Obama’s stated rationale for the switch to Petraeus — that Petraeus would be able to duplicate the success of his Iraqi surge stategy in Afghanistan — does not hold water. Today’s Washington Post carries a front page story that Petraeus’s surge strategy failed in Iraq because it has been unable to gain support from Iraq’s Sunni Arabs in Mosul. The Iraqi Arabs in Mosul, with strong support from al Qaeda and Saudi Arabia, continue to attack the Kurdish militias because Kurdish leaders like Barzani and Talibani, with tacit support from Iranian and US leaders like Gen Petraeus, make clear their intention to annex Kirkuk and its oil as soon as the US withdraws its forces from Iraq. If Mosul explodes into civil war, thanks to Gen Petraeus’ inability to acknowledge or fix this problem, Mosul’s conflict will bring down the Iraqi Accords in other parts of the country.
In short, if Obama wants to be helpful he should appoint Petraeus as his envoy to Iraq to restrain Kurdish and Iranian aggression against Iraq, so as to protect the huge US investment there. Meanwhile, Obama should reinstate Gen McChrystal as commander of US forces in Afghanistan, where McChrystal could build a powerful domestic and international United Front against fascist Pakistan and Iran.
- Scott Sullivan
ISSUES.… 07/26/2010 / — Send Us Your Issues
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Petraeus and Sadr Save Iraq
Sep 19, 2007
By: Scott Sullivan
President Bush can now accelerate the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, on
a schedule determined by GEN. Petraeus, Prime Minister Maliki, and Muqtada
al-Sadr. A Petraeus-Sadr initiative on US troop withdrawals would reinforce
the breakthrough to victory made possible by Operation Surge.
Within the past few days, the Iraqis have made stunning gains in
reintegrating their economy and political system. Thus, a weak and
ethnic-based Iraqi confederacy is now out the window, despite wishes by the
PKK, Kurdish president Barzani, and Iran’s Nazi president Ahmadinejad. They
all want to seize Iraq’s oil by partitioning Iraq into ethnic mini-states,
with the PKK taking Kirkuk while Iran and Ahmadinbejad’s Revolutionary
Guards (IRGC) would take Basra.
Instead of rolling over for the PKK and IRGC, Petraeus and Sadr pushed back
and won a decisive victory for Iraq. Petraeus and Sadr first signed wide
ranging political agreements — See LA Times 12 September 2007. Both agreed
on keeping Basra and Kirkuk in Iraqi hands, and to postpone Kirkuk’s
referendum that would shift Kirkuk and its oil reserves to control by
Barzani and the PKK.
For their part, Barzani escalated with his decision to bypass Baghdad’s
state oil company by negotiating an oil exploration agreement directly with
the Texas-based Hunt Oil Company. By signing this agreement, Barzani has
alienated Petraeus and Sadr. Barzani has also alienated Iraqi PM Maliki,
President Bush, as well as the major international oil companies, who prefer
dealing with Baghdad.
The main answered question is what Sadr will demand for his cooperation on
US troop withdrawals. It is obvious that Sadr will look for help for
Baghdad’s troubled oil ministry. The US will respond to Sadr’s needs by
rebuilding Baghdad’s centralized oil ministry and opening relations between
Sadr, Barzani. and the Iraqi Sunnis.
By strengthening Baghdad’s oil ministry the US will enhance US relations
with Sadr, who is the unofficial mayor of Baghdad; restore Sunni confidence
in the Baghdad government as Sunni access to Iraq’s oil revenues is
restored; and pacify the Kurds, who are now challenging the Baghdad oil
ministry’s authority.
Finally, cooperation between Sadr and Petraeus will send a clear signal to
Iran to back out of interference in Iraq’s internal affairs.
In short, thanks to Bush, Petraeus, and Sadr, Iraq has quickly moved from a
zone of crisis to a zone of opportunity. Congratulations all around!
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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