Political scenarios after Al-Sadr’s meeting with Allawi

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3. scott sullivan says:

   July 27, 2010 at 10:46

   Bagh­dad, Dam­as­cus, Cairo, and Riyadh will dom­i­nate Mid­dle East

   For­get Iran and Turkey — they do not deserve to gov­ern the Mid­dle East. Iran is unfit to rule the Mid­dle East because it has embraced the Nazi doc­trine. Plus, Iran’s top pri­or­ity is not to advance the Mid­dle East but to dis­rupt the Mid­dle East by estab­lish­ing a Strate­gic Cor­ri­dor that would pro­vide a safe haven for ter­ror­ists and their weapons to move from Ger­many to the pro-German Balkan states, to Turkey, Iran and Pakistan;

   Iraq’s top pri­or­ity today is to pres­sure Pres­i­dent Obama to send Gen Petraeus to Bagh­dad to warn Barzani, Tal­a­bani and Ahmadine­jad that the US will no longer tol­er­ate Kur­dish and Iran­ian inter­fer­ence in Iraq’s inter­nal affairs!

   Op-ed: Obama to assign Gen Petraeus to Baghdad?

   Obama will regret his deci­sion to replace Gen McChrys­tal with Gen Petraeus as com­man­der of all US forces in Afghanistan. Obama’s stated ratio­nale for the switch to Petraeus — that Petraeus would be able to dupli­cate the suc­cess of his Iraqi surge stat­egy in Afghanistan — does not hold water. Today’s Wash­ing­ton Post car­ries a front page story that Petraeus’s surge strat­egy failed in Iraq because it has been unable to gain sup­port from Iraq’s Sunni Arabs in Mosul. The Iraqi Arabs in Mosul, with strong sup­port from al Qaeda and Saudi Ara­bia, con­tinue to attack the Kur­dish mili­tias because Kur­dish lead­ers like Barzani and Tal­ibani, with tacit sup­port from Iran­ian and US lead­ers like Gen Petraeus, make clear their inten­tion to annex Kirkuk and its oil as soon as the US with­draws its forces from Iraq. If Mosul explodes into civil war, thanks to Gen Petraeus’ inabil­ity to acknowl­edge or fix this prob­lem, Mosul’s con­flict will bring down the Iraqi Accords in other parts of the country.

   In short, if Obama wants to be help­ful he should appoint Petraeus as his envoy to Iraq to restrain Kur­dish and Iran­ian aggres­sion against Iraq, so as to pro­tect the huge US invest­ment there. Mean­while, Obama should rein­state Gen McChrys­tal as com­man­der of US forces in Afghanistan, where McChrys­tal could build a pow­er­ful domes­tic and inter­na­tional United Front against fas­cist Pak­istan and Iran.

   - Scott Sullivan

   ISSUES.… 07/26/2010 / — Send Us Your Issues

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4. scott sullivan says:

   July 28, 2010 at 17:53

   Petraeus and Sadr Save Iraq
   Sep 19, 2007
   By: Scott Sullivan

   Pres­i­dent Bush can now accel­er­ate the with­drawal of US troops from Iraq, on
   a sched­ule deter­mined by GEN. Petraeus, Prime Min­is­ter Maliki, and Muq­tada
   al-Sadr. A Petraeus-Sadr ini­tia­tive on US troop with­drawals would rein­force
   the break­through to vic­tory made pos­si­ble by Oper­a­tion Surge.

   Within the past few days, the Iraqis have made stun­ning gains in
   rein­te­grat­ing their econ­omy and polit­i­cal sys­tem. Thus, a weak and
   ethnic-based Iraqi con­fed­er­acy is now out the win­dow, despite wishes by the
   PKK, Kur­dish pres­i­dent Barzani, and Iran’s Nazi pres­i­dent Ahmadine­jad. They
   all want to seize Iraq’s oil by par­ti­tion­ing Iraq into eth­nic mini-states,
   with the PKK tak­ing Kirkuk while Iran and Ahmadinbejad’s Rev­o­lu­tion­ary
   Guards (IRGC) would take Basra.

   Instead of rolling over for the PKK and IRGC, Petraeus and Sadr pushed back
   and won a deci­sive vic­tory for Iraq. Petraeus and Sadr first signed wide
   rang­ing polit­i­cal agree­ments — See LA Times 12 Sep­tem­ber 2007. Both agreed
   on keep­ing Basra and Kirkuk in Iraqi hands, and to post­pone Kirkuk’s
   ref­er­en­dum that would shift Kirkuk and its oil reserves to con­trol by
   Barzani and the PKK.

   For their part, Barzani esca­lated with his deci­sion to bypass Baghdad’s
   state oil com­pany by nego­ti­at­ing an oil explo­ration agree­ment directly with
   the Texas-based Hunt Oil Com­pany. By sign­ing this agree­ment, Barzani has
   alien­ated Petraeus and Sadr. Barzani has also alien­ated Iraqi PM Maliki,
   Pres­i­dent Bush, as well as the major inter­na­tional oil com­pa­nies, who pre­fer
   deal­ing with Baghdad.

   The main answered ques­tion is what Sadr will demand for his coop­er­a­tion on
   US troop with­drawals. It is obvi­ous that Sadr will look for help for
   Baghdad’s trou­bled oil min­istry. The US will respond to Sadr’s needs by
   rebuild­ing Baghdad’s cen­tral­ized oil min­istry and open­ing rela­tions between
   Sadr, Barzani. and the Iraqi Sunnis.

   By strength­en­ing Baghdad’s oil min­istry the US will enhance US rela­tions
   with Sadr, who is the unof­fi­cial mayor of Bagh­dad; restore Sunni con­fi­dence
   in the Bagh­dad gov­ern­ment as Sunni access to Iraq’s oil rev­enues is
   restored; and pacify the Kurds, who are now chal­leng­ing the Bagh­dad oil
   ministry’s authority.

   Finally, coop­er­a­tion between Sadr and Petraeus will send a clear sig­nal to
   Iran to back out of inter­fer­ence in Iraq’s inter­nal affairs.

   In short, thanks to Bush, Petraeus, and Sadr, Iraq has quickly moved from a
   zone of cri­sis to a zone of oppor­tu­nity. Con­grat­u­la­tions all around!

   Scott Sul­li­van is a for­mer Wash­ing­ton gov­ern­ment employee. Petro­le­um­world not nec­es­sar­ily share these views.

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