The new “hope-scenario” in details

24 hours after the Syr­ian author­i­ties met with Maliki’s “State of Law” del­e­ga­tion, Syr­ian media leaked a new sce­nario of the for­ma­tion of the Iraqi gov­ern­ment, which shows some signs of accep­tance among the “major­ity” of the Iraqi coalitions.

INA described the new sce­nario as the “hope-scenario” as quot­ing Ammar Al-Hakim, and even Al-Iraqiya started to con­sider the de-facto on the ground after the nom­i­na­tion of Adel Abdul-Mahdi (BBC Ara­bic will broad­cast an inter­view with Iyad Allawi on Mon­day, in which he will not men­tion him­self as a can­di­date).

This sce­nario is accepted by Al-Iraqiya List and is based on the sup­port of the Iraqi National Coali­tion can­di­date, Adel Abdul-Mahdi as INA’s can­di­date away from the alliance with the “State of Law”, with the recog­ni­tion of Al-Iraqiya’s right con­sti­tu­tion­ally as the elec­tion winner.

The three pres­i­dency posts:

The pres­i­dent post goes to Al-Iraqiya, the Prime Min­is­ter post is INA’s share, and the par­lia­ment speaker to the Kur­dis­tan Alliance. There will be one Vice-President post, which will be the “State of Law“‘s share, and three deputy prime min­is­ters (Al-Iraqiya, State of Law, Kur­dis­tan Alliance).

The new sce­nario goes even to the details:

The defense and inte­rior min­is­ters would be inde­pen­dent can­di­dates, the For­eign Min­istry will be Al-Iraqiya’s share accord­ing to this sce­nario, Min­istry of Finance goes to Iraqi National Coali­tion, and the Oil Min­istry to the Kurds.

Accord­ing to the above proposal:

Al-Iraqiya: 9 min­istries as com­pen­sa­tion for can­cel­ing its demand for the Prime Min­is­ter post.

State of Law: 7 ministries.

INA: 4 ministries.

Kur­dish Alliance: 4 ministries.

Accor­dance Front: 2 ministries.

The Com­mu­nist Party, Chris­tians, and Yezidis, each one Ministry.

For sure each new sce­nario has it’s own com­pli­ca­tions, which we will see soon. At the same time, and because of the fear that INA and Al-Iraqiya will agree on the above, Barzani announced his own initiative.