This blog post was published on January 16 2011. §
How will Muqtada Al-Sadr save Hezbollah and Syria from Hariri’s indictment?
Managed to maintain its strength among the masses, Al-Sadr employed this force to achieve political gains ahead of all the other Islamic forces, holding forty parliamentary seats, seven ministries, and the parliament Deputy-presidency, which made the leader of the Movement a major political player with the ability to influence the overall political process.This political weight would give Muqtada Al-Sadr a semi-immunity against emergency circumstances.
The real strategic secret behind Muqtada Al-Sadr’s return to Iraq is precisely calculated. We already know that Al-Sadr has a strong relation with the Syrian leadership, as well as a special “family, organizational and logistical” ties with Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah, not to mention his relation with Iran, which is for Iraqi Shiite politicians is the highest Shiite political reference, and a strategic ally.
The International tribunal’s decision or indictment against for the assassination of “Hariri” is very close [Monday according to the French Le Mond], especially after the failure of the initiative “Syria and Saudi Arabia” with pressure from the U.S. and France.
We already know that the indictment will accuses members of the Lebanese Hezbollah and perhaps some Syrian officials. This will put the “Lebanese-Syrian-Iranian” front in a regional declaration of war.
Since Iraq has become linked geopolitical and logistically to Lebanon and vice versa. Iraq will be affected by any development in Lebanon, and this forced Al-Sadr to return to Iraq as quick as possible, to not to leave Lebanon, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran without insurance, protection from the weak Iraqi link. At the same Hezbollah, Syria and Iran will back the Sadrist Movement within the same strategy.
Here is Iraq’s FM Zebari saying:
Iraq was following up developments of the tribunal … We are also a party in this equation. We are not absent from US-Iranian relations, [Iran’s] nuclear issue, the situation in Lebanon, the tribunal’s decision or indictment and from relations with Syria.
At this point, Al-Sadr will raise the readiness of the Sadrist Movement and all its military wings to open a front against the U.S. to ease the tension on Hezbollah and Syria, if both sense the danger of U.S.-Israel military activities.
This is what the Syria newspaper Al-Watan wrote two days ago:
Washington military bases in Iraq and Afghanistan … Will collide against the Arab and Islamic forces who do not accept and resist the American military intervention.
The return of Muqtada al-Sadr is a message to the Americans in the first place to reshuffle its agenda, The U.S. tried to identify the approach adopted by al-Sadr after his return in dealing with the overall political and security situation in Iraq, circulating the the leader of the movement is less radical than before, despite his focus on “resisting the occupation” in his recent speech “peacefully”.
Timed after Biden’s visit and his talks with Sistani (lasted about 3 hours in private), Al-Sadr adopted the “Liwa’a Al-Youm Al-Maoud” “The Promised Day” militia today and promised to continue the fight against the Americans, saying:
“Liwa’a Al-Youm Al-Maoud” belongs to us and is not affiliated to any one else. They are obedient and ask God to grant them victory.
Washington considers “the Promised Day”, “Hezbollah in Iraq”, “Revenge of God” and the “League of the Righteous” are militias linked and funded by Iran.
Because the Sadrists feel that they allowed Maliki to his second term, the presence of its leader in the arena may influence the performance of the government and thus will force the prime minister to implement the U.S. withdrawal without delay according to the security agreement signed between the two sides, and that will put the Prime Minister in a very difficult position in the dramatic developments in Lebanon.