Syria: The war plan and the psychological warfare

There is a rea­son behind Syria’s silence and not respond­ing to the Arab ini­tia­tive, not respond­ing to Turkey and US threats.

US nuclear aircraft-carrier deployed to the Syr­ian shores, Turkey and Arabs threaten with impos­ing sanc­tions, US issued a warn­ing to its cit­i­zens from trav­el­ing to Syria and no-fly-zone France with it’s safe zones. All are tests bal­loons and Syria knows it.

A Kuwaiti news­pa­per even pub­lished the mil­i­tary inter­ven­tion plan:

Arab air forces will bomb the tar­gets, per­haps with the par­tic­i­pa­tion of Turkey and U.S. sup­port, the goal is to par­layse Assad’s mil­i­tary forces in less than 24 hours. As for when? The newspaper’s source answered: When the AL gives the Green Light under the char­ter of “pro­tect­ing the Civilians”.

The bomb cam­paign will be pre­ceded by impos­ing a no-fly-zone on parts of Syria which will pro­hibit the move­ment of the Syr­ian mil­i­tary vehi­cles. This ban will crip­ple their abil­ity to bomb cities as pun­ish­ment for peace­ful protests.

The sce­nario of a Turk­ish inva­sion is unlikely because this will lead to a long-term con­fronta­tion with the Syr­ian army, but Turkey showed its will­ing­ness to pro­vide logis­tic sup­port such as allow­ing the use of airports.

And the bomb­ing targets:

- pres­i­den­tial palace (People’s Palace)
– The 3 head­quar­ters of the intel­li­gence ser­vices.
– Mil­i­tary com­mu­ni­ca­tions
– Ammu­ni­tion mag­a­zines.
– Mis­sile launch­ers, land-air and land-land.
– Radar sys­tems
– Head­quar­ters of the fourth bat­tal­ion.
– Houses of senior offi­cials and officers.

But accord­ing to Lebanese Al-Nahar, this is an unlikely sce­nario and for­eign inter­ven­tion in Syria is out of the ques­tion, not even by turkey.

Added that the Syr­ian Pres­i­dent Bashar al-Assad knows the dimen­sions of the sit­u­a­tion very well, the inter­na­tional and eco­nomic sit­u­a­tion is not ready to start a new war in any part of the world, and this is the case when it comes to a state still effec­tive, such as Syria.. Even the Arab coun­tries are also in trou­ble because the Arab ini­tia­tive is not the solu­tion, and the same sit­u­a­tion applies to Turkey, who can not risk con­fronta­tions on its borders.

Soft­en­ing its lan­guage, Turkey started to play down its for­mer threats of mil­i­tary inter­ven­tion, after Syria played one of its effec­tive cards against Turkey allo­cat­ing a PKK camp near the Turk­ish bor­der, has at least 150 Kur­dish sep­a­ratists insurgents.

The US failed to pres­sure Syria’s neigh­bor­ing coun­tries (Lebanon, Iraq and Jor­dan) to par­tic­i­pate in the eco­nomic sanc­tions. Jor­dan Prime Min­is­ter offi­cially apol­o­gized from the US del­e­ga­tion say­ing that his coun­try would not be bound in any sanc­tions against Syria, because it could hurt and affect Jordan’s trade and econ­omy. Say­ing:

If you use Arti­cle 7 from the UN char­ter to impose sanc­tion on Syria, then we will use arti­cle 50 which excludes neigh­bor­ing countries.

Many of the elec­tion can­di­dates includ­ing Obama, promised their sup­port­ers to with­draw the forces from Iraq and Afghanistan to get a major­ity. Start­ing a new war would be a “quag­mire” and a polit­i­cal suicide.