The future political fragmentation of the Sunnis in Iraq

The US ended the mil­i­tary occu­pa­tion of Iraq but its diplo­matic and eco­nomic influ­ence still present, casts its con­se­quences on the future of Iraqi pol­i­tics. In this regard we will see that the com­ing days will wit­ness a polit­i­cal rearrange­ment of Iraq’s for­eign pol­icy towards neigh­bor­ing coun­tries, in other words, the pres­ence of Syria-Iran axis against the GCC-West axis.

The con­se­quence of this strug­gle in the Iraqi arena will have its effects on Turkey and Jor­dan. Both coun­tries will have to review its approach of deal­ing with the event in Syria. Iraq already started to play the axis game, pun­ishes Turkey and Jor­dan refuses to allow the pas­sage to the trade trucks through Jor­dan­ian ter­ri­tory to Turkey in order not to harm the Syr­ian peo­ple, and that is after Turkey and Jor­dan offered asy­lum to Hashimi.

Inter­nally, the impact on the Iraqi Sunni polit­i­cal map will be as follows:

Sunni Islamic par­ties will go for­ward to sup­port the Riyadh-Doha-Washington axis, which will cre­ate divi­sions within the Sunni com­mu­nity Iraq, specif­i­cally the emer­gence of rad­i­cal Sun­nis linked to the event protest Syr­ian, and another Sunni groups who look at the unreast in Syria as a Western-US conspiracy.

As it hap­pened recently in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, for the Iraqiya List, this will lead to the frag­men­ta­tion of the com­po­nents of the List into a small polit­i­cal entities:

- Groups asso­ci­ated with the Mus­lim Broth­er­hood, most likely to seek coop­er­a­tion with Qatar.

- Groups asso­ci­ated with the Wahhabi-Salafi Islamic move­ments, most likely to seek coop­er­a­tion with Saudi Arabia.

- Sec­u­lar and civil groups, and most likely to seek the coop­er­a­tion with Wash­ing­ton, Paris, Lon­don and Tel Aviv.

- National and pan-Arab move­ments will seek to con­tinue their ties and rela­tions with the Iraqiya List, and some Nation­al­ist ele­ments from Iraqi National Alliance.

Al-Iraqiya List started to aban­don Al-Hashimi grad­u­ally, agreed that the Vice-President should face trial in Kur­dis­tan, stress­ing on the the inde­pen­dence of the judi­ciary system.

At the same time, Sunni Islamists within Al-Iraqiya (Mus­lim Broth­er­hood) crit­i­cised Allawi’s polit­i­cal man­age­ment of the List. Hashimi’s spokesman attacked Allawi saying:

An appeal to Iyad Allawi .. I hope you retire and leave Iraq to the Iraqi peo­ple to live in peace and har­mony because you are the The worst politi­cian in history.

The dam­age is done and the crack among Al-Iraqiya blocs is already created.