This blog post was published on December 26 2011. §
The future political fragmentation of the Sunnis in Iraq
The US ended the military occupation of Iraq but its diplomatic and economic influence still present, casts its consequences on the future of Iraqi politics. In this regard we will see that the coming days will witness a political rearrangement of Iraq’s foreign policy towards neighboring countries, in other words, the presence of Syria-Iran axis against the GCC-West axis.
The consequence of this struggle in the Iraqi arena will have its effects on Turkey and Jordan. Both countries will have to review its approach of dealing with the event in Syria. Iraq already started to play the axis game, punishes Turkey and Jordan refuses to allow the passage to the trade trucks through Jordanian territory to Turkey in order not to harm the Syrian people, and that is after Turkey and Jordan offered asylum to Hashimi.
Internally, the impact on the Iraqi Sunni political map will be as follows:
Sunni Islamic parties will go forward to support the Riyadh-Doha-Washington axis, which will create divisions within the Sunni community Iraq, specifically the emergence of radical Sunnis linked to the event protest Syrian, and another Sunni groups who look at the unreast in Syria as a Western-US conspiracy.
As it happened recently in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, for the Iraqiya List, this will lead to the fragmentation of the components of the List into a small political entities:
- Groups associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, most likely to seek cooperation with Qatar.
- Groups associated with the Wahhabi-Salafi Islamic movements, most likely to seek cooperation with Saudi Arabia.
- Secular and civil groups, and most likely to seek the cooperation with Washington, Paris, London and Tel Aviv.
- National and pan-Arab movements will seek to continue their ties and relations with the Iraqiya List, and some Nationalist elements from Iraqi National Alliance.
Al-Iraqiya List started to abandon Al-Hashimi gradually, agreed that the Vice-President should face trial in Kurdistan, stressing on the the independence of the judiciary system.
At the same time, Sunni Islamists within Al-Iraqiya (Muslim Brotherhood) criticised Allawi’s political management of the List. Hashimi’s spokesman attacked Allawi saying:
An appeal to Iyad Allawi .. I hope you retire and leave Iraq to the Iraqi people to live in peace and harmony because you are the The worst politician in history.
The damage is done and the crack among Al-Iraqiya blocs is already created.